Burn-Based Growth Planning for 2023

In 2022, the music stopped for early-stage SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) companies. And with the music stopping, so did venture capital funding of capital-inefficient startups with high cash burn. This shift is nothing new to some of us who have been in the business for the last two decades, but it is unfamiliar territory for young startup founders. Business planning priorities have shifted in this environment from “growth at all costs” to “capital efficient growth with extended cash runways.”

Let’s examine how, prior to 2022, the typical yearly planning cycle would go for an early-stage SaaS company. The CEO maps out an aggressive YoY growth goal—something like “we have to double, we have to triple, etc.”. Loyal executives fall in line and quickly map out the resources they need to meet that goal. Lofty assumptions are made by the sales and marketing leaders around the money required to generate an inordinate amount of leads, followed by unproven assumptions about the conversion rates of leads into sales. The CFO realizes they need to raise and raise big to fund the growth. The company executives waste valuable time pursuing a costly funding round which necessitates lofty growth assumptions. And a vicious cycle is born.

For many entrepreneurs, a growth funding round won’t be on the cards in this climate. PitchBook recently shared the decline in Series A deal count, down 50% since Q1’22 and we’re not done yet. This is a serious bottleneck and most pre-Series A companies need to adjust their thinking from growth-at-all-costs to growth-at-low-burn in order to weather the storm.

Tip: Check out where you stand on the key metrics investors seek using the Companyon SaaS Benchmark Tool.

Burn-Based Planning Model

To help entrepreneurs transition to growth-at-low-burn, Companyon created a simple planning tool to illustrate the shift in thinking by walking through an all-too-typical example.

Example Company Background

2022 was a challenging year for our example company. Coming off a stellar 3X growth in 2021, the company suddenly faced considerable headwinds in 2022 — slowing growth, burning cash, and declining morale.

Based on their last fundraise, the CEO is determined to get back on a 2-3X growth track that he feels sure is going to make the company more attractive for the next funding round. Forecasted to finish 2022 at $3.0M ARR they would push for 2.5X growth to $7.5M ARR in 2023 followed by 2X growth to $15M in 2024.

The company has a modest NRR (net retention rate) of 110% but is comfortable that it will get to 125% for 2024. It’s been a tough year and the current Burn Multiple is 3.0, but given the need to ramp up additional GTM resources, they can only get to a Burn Multiple of 2.5 in 2023 and 2.0 in 2024.

With $6M in ending cash and debt facility, they know they will need to raise more capital.

About The Excel Tool

The Burn-Based Planning Tool is a simple excel spreadsheet with two tabs that help illustrate the difference between the old way of planning based on ARR growth requiring a large capital raise and the new way based on a projected burn multiple and modest available capital.

Download Companyon’s Burn-Based Planning Tool Here >>

Planning the Old Way: ARR-Based Growth Tab

Looking at the ARR-Based Growth model illustrated above, the challenge with driving higher ARR growth is the capital required to realize that growth. Once it’s clear that the projected burn will exceed opening cash and debt, the CEO is forced to raise money, and given the current burn in this climate, it will need to be an external round that will support an 18-24 month runway. That’s a significant Series A raise of $25-30M. Raising a Series A is tough, but the company is coming off a difficult year and lacks the traction to raise this round. It’s not a viable strategy.

The New Way: Burn-Based Growth Tab

Companyon is encouraging its CEOs to face the reality of this market and adjust their thinking to growth-at-low-burn. Specifically, a burn multiple of less than 2, i.e. for every $2 in cash spent you create $1 in Net New ARR. It’s not an overwhelming ask. With lower burn, a modest investment can deliver compelling growth over the next year with better overall metrics, positioning the company for a strong Series A as markets improve.

The key to success in this approach to growth is GTM (go-to-market) conversion rates. In order to improve burn multiple while still achieving some level of revenue growth, the company must dramatically improve the GTM conversion metrics. That means improving the conversion rates from lead to qualified lead, qualified lead to sales opportunity, and sales opportunity to closed/won deal. Improving these conversion rates requires cracking the code on the optimal product/market fit, customer segments, and improved competitive positioning and sales execution. The list goes on. This is where the hard work comes in: How to build a capital-efficient, optimal execution, and high-output company.

 

In the Burn-Based Growth tab, we can adjust the amount of capital available to fund the business. With no incremental new capital investment, ARR growth will be low, just 33% YoY, but the company is more viable to weather a poor macroeconomic year. Now we can decide what level of incremental investment we can make as an extension or bridge round, most likely with existing investors. In this case, we estimate $3M is doable and will yield a healthy 83% YoY growth.

Going into 2024, the company is now an attractive business with strong metrics that will support a healthy round as the market conditions improve and the company has proof that it can get back on an accelerated growth trajectory. Of course, the lower the burn multiple in 2023, the higher the ARR growth on that bridge round. With a burn multiple of 1.65 in 2023, the company would be back on a 2X growth trajectory in 2023 on much less capital, at much lower risk, and with far more attractive metrics.

Getting to Burn Multiples < 2

Subscribe to our newsletter and join me and Parthib Srivathsan, Companyon’s Head of Data Analytics and Strategy, as we share more tools and tactics to help you reach a burn multiple less than 2 in order to meet the new realities of capital-constrained growth.

In our upcoming blogs on this topic, we will help you:

  • Segment your business to meet your strategic goals
  • Instrument and optimize your lead conversion rate
  • Build your pricing strategy to drive sustainable growth
  • Optimize gross margin by reducing COGS
  • Improve cashflow through better payment terms

Companyon SaaS Benchmarks Tool: 2022 Update

At Companyon Ventures, we created the Expansion Team to help our portfolio companies identify and implement operational best practices faster and more effectively at the early stages of their evolution. As part of our fundamental expertise, we help our portfolio stress test the assumptions of their business model and investment thesis against established SaaS benchmarks.

We’re big fans of OpenView’s SaaS Benchmark Report. We continue to augment these reports with our SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool to measure our portfolio’s current and projected performance against other high-performing SaaS startups.

We keep the same focus on the SaaS Key Metrics:

  • Year-on-Year Growth Rate
  • Sales and Marketing Spend
  • R&D Spend
  • Gross Margin
  • Monthly Burn Rate
  • CAC Payback (months)
  • Gross Dollar Retention
  • Net Dollar Retention

2022 Shift in Focus

In today’s market, the focus has shifted from growth-at-all-costs to capital-efficient growth, where capital efficiency metrics have come to dominate how SaaS companies are assessed. This tool is a great way to see how you‘re performing on those critical metrics: Gross Margin, Monthly Burn Rate, CAC Payback, and Net Dollar Retention.

Companyon’s SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool

The tool allows a startup to input data to derive its own ‘Six SaaS Metrics’ and see how they contrast to the class of SaaS vendors in their cohort of size based on current ARR.

The SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool operationalizes OpenView’s Data Explorer in an Excel format that can be used in any Excel or Google Sheets operational or financial model. It allows a company to input 11 of its broader metrics (e.g., revenue derived from subscriptions, spending on R&D, and churn rate) in order to immediately and simultaneously derive its six specific key SaaS metrics, quickly and easily capturing all of that company’s performance metrics in comparison to its peers.

Download the SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool Here >>

How to Use The SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool

 

Tab 1 – Data Input

Input the 11 requested metrics. You should already have these metrics measured in your financial model (beyond just revenue and expenses). If not, you should start tracking them immediately to understand the intricacies of your business and become data-driven.

Tab 2 – Data Output

Based on the previous inputs, The SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool plots a company’s performance against peers in its revenue category. If a metric is higher or lower than the benchmark range, it may be in need of improvement.

Sometimes a metric being out of benchmark range may not signal a significant red flag. Rather, falling outside of the benchmark range should prompt you to further investigate as it may mean that your company is performing better than peers. Yet if that metric is indeed relatively poor, you should analyze inputs and prepare to defend your Pro-forma metrics to potential investors.

For example, if a company’s logo retention is low but its net dollar retention is very high, its customers are churning quickly but its core customers are spending more than ever. As a result, that company’s situation is not as dangerous as The SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool may initially indicate.

Tab 3 – OV 2022 SaaS Benchmarks

Ignore this tab, which contains additional input data via OpenView and is included so that you can integrate The SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool into your financial model.

Incorporating The SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool into a Financial Model

Select the three tabs in The SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool to move them into your financial model, linking relevant cells to their corresponding 11 inputs.

If you join our mailing list, I’ll notify you when I’ve uploaded a video tutorial explaining how to integrate the tool into a financial model.

By integrating this tool with your financial model, you’ll be able to see how inputs beyond the 11 captured here can further impact performance. In addition, the integration will ensure that your metrics automatically update when you transition to a new (ideally higher) revenue bracket.

Download the SaaS Benchmarks Modeling Tool Here >>

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Scaling Beyond Founder-Led Sales

Founders Don’t Scale

If you compare a startup to the Chicago Bulls, the founder would be Michael Jordan. That’s because founders are the elite performers, the leaders of their teams, and almost always the most captivating employee on the floor.

For a founder, selling their product or service comes easy. They built it, they know the problem it solves, and they know how to position it in a way that clearly shows its value proposition.

Founders are also super passionate about their products and services, which makes selling them second nature. They’re also the ultimate authority when representing their company and solution.

Takeaway: Don’t think of a founder like you would a salesperson, think of them as an evangelist, in a class of their own.

But it’s these exact skills that make it difficult for founders to scale their businesses because scaling involves handing off a good amount of responsibility for generating sales to other employees.

This is not surprising, of course. Founders think differently. They challenge interpretations. They view the world in the same way that Pablo Picasso views art. When they create something, other people may see the obvious but founders see something completely different that leaves others scratching their heads.

Takeaway: You can’t scale founders. The challenge for founders boils down to how they can transfer their knowledge and passion to new sales reps that don’t know the company or industry as well and are likely in a completely different mindset. After all, early hires may very well be young professionals just out of college trying to lock down their first job.

Reaching Message-Market Fit

To be successful in scaling your sales team, the first thing you need to do is paint a really good picture of your target customers, something you know intimately, but they don’t. This means going beyond the high-level details and creating actual personas. It’s so much more helpful if your new sales reps know:

  • What the customer’s job is all about
  • How it functions, how they feel about it
  • Their budget and how they get it
  • Who they report to
  • How they are measured
  • The key pain points in their business
  • How that pain point directly ties to your solution
  • What is the measurable business impact of solving these pains
  • What customer ROI stories can we share as proof of this impact

Takeaway: As founders, we’ve all had product market fit beaten into us and we all strive to achieve it. Now, the goal is to achieve message-market fit, so your team has the appropriate talking points for the appropriate personas.

Just because your new salesperson doesn’t think like Picasso it doesn’t mean they can’t paint a pretty decent picture if you give them the proper canvas, tell them what colors to use, and show them what they are supposed to paint.

This is also a good time to help your sales reps understand how to use important marketing materials and which materials should go to which personas, depending on their stage in the buyer journey.

Tip: One way to do that is to map the customer journey, illustrating what questions customers will have and what they will need to believe to take the next step. The Advanced Content Roadmap Generator is a great tool for defining what marketing materials you need for every step of the customer’s journey.

Making New Sales Reps Sales Ready

It is important to remember that you are going to be demanding a lot from your sales reps so go into this with reasonable expectations. Sales reps are not going to be able to do a sales pitch as you would and their message may not be perfect but if they can reach 80 percent accuracy that’s pretty good.

You’ll want to prepare your sales team for the competition and certain scenarios in which competitors may be better suited than your company to solve a specific client’s problem.

Yes, of course, you want your team to fully believe in your product and the company but the reality is that it won’t be for everyone. It’s better to be transparent so your sales team doesn’t waste time pursuing clients that are going to be really difficult to close and instead focus more on promising leads. The sales team will also benefit from having a clearer understanding of the competitive landscape.

Tip: A great tool to help do this is Battle Cards. Hubspot’s generic Battle Card is a good start, but for more pinpoint differentiation these offensive and defensive battle cards may help. Todd Caponi’s 4.2 Star rating covered in the book The Transparency Sale is also a helpful guide.

DOWNLOAD Competitive Sales Matrix – Offensive & Defensive Battle Cards Here >>

Okay, so now you’ve told your new sales team about the customer, arrived at message-market fit, preempted any competitor positioning, and are ready for them to hop on some sales calls.

Does this mean they are now on their own? Once upon a time, it might have but with technology, there are actually some great tools you can use to continue guiding your sales team without breathing down their necks.

I am obviously referring to the power of conversational artificial intelligence (AI) tools such as Gong.io and Chorus.ai. These platforms record, transcribe, and analyze sales calls and then provide actionable insights in real-time that can help a sales rep improve their pitch.

Through these platforms, you can see how critical information is being presented (or not) and then hone the messaging. These platforms also give founders a virtual seat on calls to observe asynchronously or to actually help the sales rep during the call. Conversational AI may sound like a bizarre or overbearing tool but I can assure you that it’s really your best friend, so please take advantage.

Tip: Build your own dashboard in Gong.io or Chorus.ai that shows you how many conversations over what cadence your team is having with prospects at key stages in the sales cycle. It’s a quick way to qualify your pipeline, dive in to personally hear the progress on key accounts, and help you give feedback to reps on specific moments in the customer conversations.

The Founder’s Role in Sales

Initially, while scaling sales, the founder is going to spend a lot of hands-on time with the team to build the sales funnel.

Start at the top of the funnel and begin to relinquish responsibility gradually. Perhaps you begin by letting new sales reps manage inbound leads and outbound prospecting. Then you’ll want to get them proficient in leading discovery calls or first demos.

The goal for founders isn’t to hand off the full sales process. Instead, their time and involvement should move further and further down the funnel, eventually only spending time in late-stage deals.

This doesn’t mean you’re no longer part of the process but rather that you’re resuming your role as the captain, as Michael Jordan. Now, you can position yourself as an asset and a thought leader that will ultimately accelerate deals through the funnel.

Tip: Salespeople should take the lead on activities such as setting the agenda, preparation, and next steps. You, as the founder, will lay out the vision for the company and the roadmap for innovation. As initial leads become qualified and forecasted deals that’s when you’ll step up to the plate. Maybe it’s time for a customer to pilot your product, address unique integrations or feature requests or hear from an expert, that’s when the founder enters the funnel.

We hope this has given you a good framework to begin scaling your sales efforts. Please stay tuned for our next blog post where we will discuss how to structure the sales process from the top of the funnel (ToFu) to the middle of the funnel (MoFu) all the way to the bottom of the funnel (BoFu).

Part 2: Founder Funnel Management

Read part of two of this series, Founder Funnel Managment.

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